- Start with the orange box. It always says what is happening now and what to do next.
- Your moves is your short job list for this week. Tap a box to tick one off.
- The campaign is the whole plan, step by step, to Christmas.
- The money shows what you collect, and how sure we are of each figure.
- Listen has two short recordings. Tap one and it plays.
- Papers are the documents, to read, save, or print.
- Strategy notes: tap any question to read why we do it that way.
- Any time: the A+ / A- buttons change the text size, Dark / Light changes the colours, and the grey buttons below jump you around.
Your moves this week
Three items, then you're clear until the September call. Tick as done; the page remembers. An assistant can carry all of this if you want it off your desk.
The campaign ahead
Each stage is chosen to close one of Connolly's remaining options and move him toward a signature. The orange stage is live now.
The money in play
What you stand to collect, grouped by where it comes from, with an honest confidence level on each line. Nothing here is summed into a single total, because the two sources settle separately and adding them would double-count. The figures firm up as the October report and the costs order land.
From the Spanish liquidation the roughly EUR 2 million the liquidator holds
| What | Amount | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Loan principal repaid to you (EUR 680k documented + EUR 80k on bank proof) | EUR 760,000 | High |
| Interest on those loans (commercial rate, the 1994 MOU cites 6%) | ~EUR 300-400k | Low |
| Your 51% of the cash left after creditors are paid | ~EUR 400-600k | Low |
| Escrow from the 2024 sale, if the buyer earns its four-star rating | up to EUR 750,000 | Contingent |
From Connolly's side through the hotel-sale waterfall and the costs order
| What | Amount | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| Capital you put in that he never matched (Tinakilly EUR 595,908 + Monasterio EUR 134,800, plus US$17,487) | ~EUR 731,000 | High |
| 5% compound interest on that capital, running from 2013 to 2019 dates* | ~EUR 500,000 | Medium |
| Your legal costs he is ordered to pay (about two-thirds of ~EUR 3M spend, after the bill review) | ~EUR 1.0-1.4M | Expected, counsel |
| His 51% of the hotel, surrendered in the settlement | to be valued | Valuation |
* One open dispute trims the capital line: Connolly claims a EUR 450,000 payment to you in March 2025 repaid part of it; the record shows it came from the Spanish sale proceeds. Fitzgerald, the court accountant, decides this from the documents.
Why this ends in a settlement. Set against him personally, Connolly owes roughly EUR 3 million and up once the costs order lands (your costs, the capital repayment, the Spanish liquidation costs, his own director loan). His only assets are his 51% of the hotel and his 49% of the Spanish residue, and both are consumed several times over. Signing is the one path where he keeps anything at all. That gap, not any pressure, is the lever. The hotel's own sale price, still to be valued, is the largest single number in the whole picture.
Valuing the hotel
When the hotel is valued in September, Arthur Cox instructs two independent firms for a defended range, then runs a discreet sale. These are the credible names in the Irish market, for reference. Nothing for you to do here; your lawyers choose and instruct.
Listen to the plan
Prefer to listen? Two short spoken recordings. Tap either one and it opens in a new tab and plays. Nothing to sign in to.
Want to ask a question out loud and hear it answered? Open the notebook, press play, tap “Interactive mode,” then the microphone, and speak. (That part may ask you to sign in with Google.)
Your papers
The written versions, to read, keep, or print.
Strategy notes
Tap any question below to open the answer. Tap it again to close.